Several researchers from the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, will be giving presentations at this meeting, which annually attracts more than 8,000 transportation professionals from around the world. Among the ITS-Davis presentations will be the following. There Really Is Chaos on the Freeway As every commuter knows, freeway traffic can slow down and stop, sometimes for no obvious reason. Scientists compare the flow of traffic to the flow of liquid through a pipe. Smooth, or laminar, flow moves high volumes quickly. When the flow becomes turbulent, or chaotic, the flow rate drops. Mathematical models of freeway traffic can reproduce smooth flow, but it has been difficult to make the same models create chaotic traffic jams, according to ITS-Davis researcher Michael Zhang. Zhang and his colleagues have developed a new mathematical model that includes variables for factors such as driver alertness, and driver habits such as speed and tailgating. By capturing these human variables, they can reproduce the transition from order to chaos on the freeways. The next step is to find out which of these human factors are critical, by making observations of actual freeway traffic and comparing them to results from the model. Presenters: H. Michael Zhang, assistant professor, civil and environmental engineering, (530) 754-9203, hmzhang@ucdavis.edu; Taewan Kim, graduate student, civil and environmental engineering Session: 38, Microscopic Traffic Flow Models Paper: "Car-Following Theory for Multiphase Vehicular Traffic Flow" Time and place: 10:15 a.m.-noon Monday, Jan. 8, Marriott, Cotillion North Room Sustainable Transportation in Developing Countries Developing countries face rapid growth in motorized transportation accompanied by increased pollution. In this session, ITS-Davis director Daniel Sperling will present case reports from Shanghai, Delhi, Santiago and South Africa prepared by ITS-Davis researchers and local experts. At best, greenhouse gas emissions due to traffic will at least double in the next 20 years in most developing countries, according to the reports. Without effective action, the increases could be much larger. The size of the difference between the best-case and worst-case scenarios shows the importance of effective policy and investment, according to Sperling. Presenter: Daniel Sperling, director, ITS-Davis, (530) 752-7434, dsperling@ucdavis.edu Session: 124, Transportation Sustainability Around the World: International Roundtable (part 2) Paper: "Developing Nations' Progress on Sustainable Transportation Issues" Time and place: 3:45-5:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 8, Washington Hilton, Monroe Room Fuel Cells Could Save Costs, Pollution From Idling Trucks When truck drivers stop for a break, they keep their diesel engines running to power heating and cab electronics and to prevent cold-start problems. Over five years, an average truck uses more than 9,000 gallons of fuel while idling, costing $15,635 in fuel costs, $3,636 in maintenance and $7,272 in engine overhauls, according to Christie Brodrick, a graduate student at ITS-Davis. Over the same time, the idling engines belch tons of pollutants into the atmosphere. A small fuel cell, which generates electricity from hydrogen or methane, could replace idling engines. Researchers from ITS-Davis are collaborating with Freightliner Corporation to study the potential benefits of fuel cells as auxiliary power units in trucks. Presenters: Christie J. Brodrick, graduate student; Tim Lipman, associate director, Fuel Cell Vehicle Modeling Program, (530) 754-9000, telipman@ucdavis.edu; Mohammad Farshchi, project manager, FCVMP, (530) 752-4122, mfarschi@ucdavis.edu; Harry A. Dwyer, professor of mechanical and aeronautical engineering, (530) 752-1777, hadwyer@ucdavis.edu; S. William Gouse, Freightliner Corporation; D. Bruce Harris, Foy G. King, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Session: 159, Evaluation of Alternative Fuel Vehicle Technologies and Their Marketability Paper: "Potential Benefits of Utilizing Fuel Cell Auxiliary Power Units in Lieu of Heavy-Duty Truck Engine Idling" Time and place: 7:30-9:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 8, Washington Hilton, Georgetown West Room Lessons From the Partnership for New Generation Vehicles Now 7 years old, the Clinton administration's Partnership for New Generation Vehicles was meant to jump start energy-efficient vehicle development through public-private partnerships. PNGV led to better relations between the automakers and the federal government, raised the profile of new technologies, and encouraged innovation and investment by industry, according to ITS-Davis director Daniel Sperling. In this presentation, Sperling will review the achievements of the PNGV and discuss whether it has reached all its goals. Presenter: Daniel Sperling, director, ITS-Davis, (530) 752-7434, dsperling@ucdavis.edu Session: 179, CAFE Rising? How Do We Reduce Oil Use This Time? Paper: "Rethinking Public-Private R&D Partnerships: Lessons from PNGV" Time and place: 8-9:45 a.m. Tuesday, Jan. 9, Washington Hilton, International East Room E-Commerce: Will It Affect Traffic Congestion? No more fighting for a parking space at the mall -- that's the promise of shopping over the Internet. But the ability to buy online will not necessarily reduce car use and traffic congestion, according to Patricia Mokhtarian of ITS-Davis. Both e-shopping and store shopping have their advantages, so e-shopping is likely to supplement, rather than replace, store shopping. At the same time, there will be a greater demand for frequent deliveries of small amounts of goods. E-shopping could change land-use patterns, with the closure of some stores and the development of regional warehouses and pick-up/drop-off centers, perhaps combined with existing stores. Presenter: Patricia Mokhtarian, professor of civil and environmental engineering, (530) 752-7062, plmokhtarian@ucdavis.edu Session: 274, Implications of E-Commerce for Transportation Paper: "E-Commerce Impacts on Total Vehicle Travel: Potential Impacts and Research Needs" Time and place: 3:45-5:30 p.m. Tuesday, Jan. 9, Shoreham Hotel, Diplomat Room Estimating Future Air Quality From Current Trends Cities often pass federal air-quality tests only by narrow margins. For example, Sacramento passed its 1999 conformity test for nitric oxide emissions by less than one-tenth of one percent. The standards cities will have to meet in the future are based on trends in population, employment, fuel prices and other factors. Those estimates do not have to be wrong by much to have a big effect on future emissions estimates. ITS-Davis researchers Caroline Rodier and Robert Johnston looked for the areas where small errors would have the biggest effect. They found that population and employment estimates were the most influential factors. They found almost a 1 in 6 probability that the Sacramento region would not meet standards for nitric oxides in 2005. Presenters: Caroline J. Rodier, researcher, ITS-Davis and Mineta Institute, San Jose State University, cjrodier@ucdavis.edu; Robert A. Johnston, professor of environmental science and policy, (530) 752-3015, rajohnston@ucdavis.edu Session: 284, Uncertainty in Models and Emerging Methods of Analysis Paper: "Uncertain Socioeconomic Projections Used in Travel and Emissions Models: Could Plausible Errors Result in Air Quality Nonconformity?" Time and place: 3:45-5:30 p.m. Tuesday, Jan. 9, Washington Hilton, Thoroughbred Room Making Carsharing Work In carsharing schemes, commuters share a pool of cars linked to public transit. This makes more efficient use of cars that otherwise stand idle in parking lots while their owners are at work, according to ITS-Davis researcher Susan Shaheen. Shaheen led the CarLink program, which used information technology to share 12 natural-gas-powered Honda Civics among San Francisco Bay Area commuters. In this presentation, Shaheen will present an overview of CarLink and other carshare and transit feeder services. She will discuss how these schemes can be strengthened and made more viable. Cooperation with businesses and transit, transportation policy, incentives and technology costs are all important factors. Presenters: Susan Shaheen, Honda Distinguished Scholar in Transportation, (510) 231-9460, sashaheen@nt.path.berkeley.edu Session: 335, Carsharing Paper: "Commuter-Based Carsharing: Market Niche Potential" Time and place: 8-9:45 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 10, Washington Hilton, Thoroughbred Room