A trio of papers by Daniel Sperling, director of the UC DavisInstitute of Transportation Studies, and his graduate students focus on the future demand for alternative fuels. The highlights:• Methanol has a bright future among people who want more power and less pollution from their cars. "There is a large overlap among vehicle owners who value high octane, power and reduced emissions, and this population is fairly large," says Daniel Sperling, who chairs the TRB Committee on Alternative Transportation Fuels. "The challenge for methanol marketers and proponents is to create marketing strategies that target that market segment and develop regulatory incentives that reward methanol's superior pollution characteristics."• People who are initially likely to buy electric vehicles need to own a home with a carport or garage, own another car capable of long-distance driving and want to replace a car used to commute less than 80 miles round-trip daily. Analyzing such factors, graduate students Kevin A. Nesbitt and Kenneth S. Kurani and researcher Mark A. DeLuchi estimate that the potential market for existing technology electric cars is 28 million households. "Foremost among the factors," they note, "is the ability to recharge the vehicle at home."• "In the 1970s, faced with rapidly increasing prices for petroleum and a virtually complete dependence on imports to satisfy all petroleum demand -- but with the advantage of a large offshore gas field -- the New Zealand government undertook an ambitious program to substitute domestic natural gas for imported petroleum," graduate student Kenneth S. Kurani says. Consumers who wanted to experiment with new technology or who were concerned about air quality activated the market for converting gasoline-powered cars to natural gas. Government subsidies attracted price-conscious drivers who could recoup the conversion costs. As many as 150,000 vehicles were converted before the market for the alternatively fueled cars fell apart in the late 1980s. Kurani tied the fuel conversion market collapse to the end of government subsidies. "The inescapable fact is that the new fuels market could not withstand abandonment by its government partner," he says. One of the lessons Kurani extracts from his analysis is that "signals of commitment, whether from government or industry, must remain firm and consistent."The above papers will be presented during session No. 142 at 2 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 14, at the Washington Hilton Hotel.