American Agricultural Economics Association Conference Paper: "Trade Policy and the Effects of Improved ENSO Forecasts on Agricultural Commodity Markets" UC Davis co-authors: Daniel A. Sumner, professor and director of the Agricultural Issues Center; Daniel G. Hallstrom, doctoral student; and Hyunok Lee, associate researcher Date and time: Tuesday, Aug. 4, 10:30 a.m. to noon People have done a lot of talking about El Niño, but Sumner is calling on his fellow economists to do a lot more thinking about it, especially the implications of better forecasts of El Niño and its two subsequent phases. He has organized a conference session to stimulate more research on how these seasonal climate forecasts affect agriculture and agricultural economics, and his paper will be one of three to be presented. Sumner is developing models to incorporate the forecasts into economic models for international trade. He explores the role of the forecasts in grain markets under different trade policies.